Since the beginning of the year, the container fleet has increased by 1.6 million TEUs. Compared with a year ago, capacity has increased by 11% to 29.5 million TEUs, the fastest fleet growth in 15 years.

In the first half of 2024, new ship deliveries hit a new high. Shipyards delivered a total of 264 ships with a total capacity of 1.6 million TEUs, which is two-thirds more than the record set in the first half of last year.

While no new benchmark was set, high demand for ships kept the demolition rate low. Strong cargo growth and the diversion of ships around the Cape of Good Hope led to only 36 ships with a total capacity of 51,000 TEU being demolished.

Despite the record, shipowners continue to order new ships. So far this year, 63 ships with a total capacity of 400,000 TEU have been ordered, and the orderbook-to-fleet ratio remains high at 19%.

Currently, the shipyard's new shipbuilding orders already include orders that will not be delivered until 2028, with an average annual delivery of 1.5 million TEUs planned between 2025 and 2027.

The fastest growth was seen in the 12,000-17,000 TEU segment, which now accounts for the largest share of the container fleet at 22%. The segment grew 25% year-on-year, accounting for nearly 50% of the fleet growth.

In fact, the 12,000-17,000 TEU vessel size is also the main driver of growth during 2022 and 2023. Moreover, this type of vessel will continue to dominate growth in the coming years as it accounts for more than 50% of the newbuilding orderbook.

Ships with a capacity of more than 17,000 TEUs dominated growth in the 2015-2021 period, but accounted for only 17% of the newbuilding orderbook. The reason is that shipowners have shifted their focus away from such large ships, which are restricted to operating in ports in Asia and Europe, and most of these trade routes are already covered by the 212 ships in service.

The container fleet capacity is expected to exceed 30 million TEU for the first time by the end of the third quarter and reach 30.5 million TEU by the end of 2024. By the end of 2027, the current order book will add another 4.3 million TEU. As cargo growth is unlikely to match the new capacity, we expect ship demolitions to increase, dampening overall fleet growth. In addition, if ships are eventually able to return to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, demand for ships will also decline.